Applying the Iso 31000 Risk Assessment Framework to Coastal Zone Management

The NSW Government’s Sea Level Rise Policy Statement, Coastal Planning Guideline: Adapting to Sea Level Rise and Draft Guidelines for Preparing Coastal Zone Management Plans have endorsed the use of a ‘risk assessment approach’ to coastal zone management. The risk assessment framework is used extensively in industry and government as it provides a process for determining sensible management outcomes even when there is considerable uncertainty or lack of data. Thus, the approach is ideal for managing the issues surrounding climate change adaptation and coastal hazards. This paper outlines a methodology for applying the Australian Standard for Risk Management (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009) to coastal zone management as prescribed within the various NSW Government guidelines. Steps within the risk management framework, such as ‘identifying the risks’, ‘analysing risk likelihood and consequence’, ‘prioritising the risks’, and ‘risk treatment’, can be applied to various phases of the coastal zone management process. Coastal hazards may be defined in terms of a ‘likelihood’ of hazard extent. At the management phase the extent and type of coastline development, recreational demand, ecological and other coastal values can be used to determine the ‘consequences’ of coastal hazards. Combining likelihood and consequence to define an overall level of risk provides the foundation for prioritising management efforts and resources towards the highest priority coastal risks. There remains considerable uncertainty with respect to climate change, particularly surrounding the timeframe, extent and types of impacts that may occur. The risk assessment framework can help to accommodate uncertainty, as outcomes may be assessed and compared even when there is little available data. Given the uncertainty in timeframes for climate change impacts, our methodology advocates developing management responses that are trigger-based, rather than time-based. Using the adaptation tool developed by Fisk and Kay (2010), this paper explores the application of risk-based coastal zone planning using examples from NSW.